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I am currently working on the day ahead load forecasting using a regression model over a microgrid level.

I wanted to know is there a way I can detect peak period i.e period where demand is high from our forecasted demand.

I am thinking of taking the mean of consumption if at any time demand is greater than mean mark it as peak otherwise it is off-peak.

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I have never worked in forecasting but, if I were given the problem, I would consider using one the following methods:

  1. Specify what your peak capacity is. Set a warning threshold - 90%, for example. Any forecast value above that value may be considered "peak".
  2. Find the actual peak value. Set any value > 95% (for example) of that peak as "peak".

It all depends on what you want the system to tell you but you haven't specified this.

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