In Pozar's Microwave Engineering, he analyzes the Wilkinson power divider using even-odd mode analysis. His results match the expected values and power conservation is satisfied. Similar derivations can be found online. Here's where I'm losing the analysis.
Consider a line of 1 ohm feeding a quarter-wave transformer of impedance sqrt(2) ohms, leading to a load of 2 ohms. This results in a matched input, $$ \Gamma_{in} = 0 $$ The transmission coefficient for the transmission line, confirmed by simple algebra as well as simulation, is $$ T_{load} = -j $$ Where the subscript load indicates that this is the output transmission coefficient, S21. Using this result, we would expect to be able to write $$ V_{load} = TV_{inc} $$ Or, for a coordinate system in x from the input port x=-lambda/2 to the load at x=0, $$ V(0) = TV(-\lambda/4) = -jV_0$$ for amplitude V_0 i.e. the output voltage is a phase-shift input voltage.
This result in incorrect, however. The transmission coefficient is correct, but the output voltage is not found by it. The output voltage, V(0), can be shown to be $$ V(0) = -j V_0 \sqrt 2 $$ Which is scaled up slightly from the incident voltage. The reason, in short, is that by assuming: $$ V(x) = V^+ (e^{-j\beta x}+e^{j\beta x}\Gamma) $$ We use V(lambda/4), $$ V(\lambda/4) = j(1 - \Gamma) = V_0 $$ And V(0), $$ V(0) = V^+ (1 + \Gamma)$$ And we find $$ \frac{V(0)}{V(-\lambda/4)} = -j \frac{1+\Gamma}{1-\Gamma}$$ Where Gamma is the reflection coefficient at the load. Then we arrive at $$ \frac{V(0)}{V(-\lambda/4)} = -j \sqrt 2$$
So what happened? Where is the problem with the first derivation, and why in the second are we allowed to assume a matched input but that the load voltage will depend on the load reflection coefficient, when any analysis of a quarter-wave transformer is in some way based on multiple reflections, which makes this a strange idea?